Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama Preview and Predictions

And we are back at it with the second race of the season in as many weeks.  This week is Barber which is on iRacing so that makes it a little easier for me to break down as I have driven and raced on it.

There really is only one good passing opportunity per lap and that is going down breaking for turn 5.  I expect this week to be a better test of how the “new” (which is back to the old) blocking rule is going to work.  I don’t see Castroneves completing a pass on the outside here so defending the inside line will probably be enough to hold anyone off but will see.  I expect we will also see the driver’s test Barfield this week as not only is passing going to be hard but they have two weeks to get replacement parts and which will not affect the April 4^th test at Indy as that will be with the new oval aero parts.  So if the reason everyone was so well behaved at St. Pete was because lack of parts and not time between races that is not going to be an issue here.

For predictions I’m going to change it up some sure I think Power will get the pole but it will get pretty boring if I just pick Power every time so I’ll go with Briscoe this week.  Some things we learn from last week is on the twisties Chevy is the lump to have.  What makes this interesting is this might mean on ovals Honda is the better choice so that could make May fun to see how well the Penskie’s can get will people we don’t normally see up there (like A.J. Foyt Enterprises) up there!  Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves though back to this week and Barber.  Major Hitchcliffe did set the fastest time in Q2 last week so AA has what it takes to get it done so don’t turn you back on them either which is why I am going to go with James Hinchcliffe for the win this week.  Going out on a little limb but not too big of one.  For P2 I would look towards Will Power to rebound from his “horrible” 7^th place finish last week.  (Just how great do you have to be when 7^th is a horrible finish?)  For the third step on the podium I am going to go with Ryan Briscoe to complete the Chevy sweep.  The story of the race I am afraid is going to be the blocking/defending rule as I really see some people getting held up behind slower cars.  (As long as it isn’t how bad the TV coverage is however, I’ll consider it a win!)  The Legend In His Own Mind Award I’m going to look at Rubens Barrichello.  I was not one of the people who thought Rubens would come in and just take over the IndyCar series.  While I said it wouldn’t shock me if he won A race it wouldn’t shock me if he didn’t either and I would be surprised if he was a serious contender for the championship.  However, after a 17^th place finish last week I think he really needs a top 10 this week to show that he is not too old to get it done and is more than just hype.

Iowa Corn Indy 250 Preview and Predictions

This weekend IndyCar heads to the short oval of Iowa Speedway and for the first time it will be ran under the lights.  Better still (at lease for me) is I am heading there with them.  This is my replacement for Chicagoland Speedway and Barber.  (I always go to Chicagoland but sense IndyCar does not race there this year I will give my money to Rusty Wallace instead.  I also had tickets and pit passes for all three days at Barber earlier this year but was unable to go so I talked myself in to going to Iowa to make up for it).  This is a very nifty little track with changing banking (done right, more and more tracks are going to different banking in the turns but Iowa did it right with a nice smooth parabolic curve).  The one thing learned from years passed at this track is aggressiveness does NOT always pay off.  Please take not Mr. EJ Viso!  This is also a track where the Death Stars dominance should be at its lease.  As aerodynamics means next to nothing here, they are very important on road courses and extremely important on most ovals this however is that exception.  Here you need mechanical grip not aero grip.  So if “Pork Chop” was going to have a good race this is her best shot.

For predictions, contrary to what I just said about “Pork Chop” I am not going to go with Simona.  Sentimental favorite yes but I just do not think she can pull it off with her confidence shaken as badly as it is.  Pole is going to be hard to pick, as I am afraid that it might come down to track temperatures.  Qualifying is right smack in the middle of the afternoon high so catch a cloud and your golden otherwise be prepared to slip and slide.  Should be interesting how teams attack qualifying as the track conditions will be nothing like race but they do have a hour fifteen minute practice that will also have hot slippery track conditions so we will see.  Meanwhile I have to pick someone so I will go with the hot hand of Dario Franchitti.  For the win, I would love to see Tony Kanaan pull it off and his showing at the Mile gives me enough hope to go with it!  One note though Tony you have to finish to win and this has not been the best track for Tony when it comes to rolling the car home.  Second, I will go with Dario after all if anyone other then his BFF (TK) beats him we know we will have two whole weeks of him crying about it but then again he is likely to cry about something anyway.  To close out the podium I well say Helio brings it home.  Unless you are extreme anti-Helio, you just had to fill heart broken for him last week.  Leading pulling away flat tire no matter still fastest car on the track yellow had to come in.  I strongly believe without TK spinning Helio would have stayed out and brought it home but with the yellow bunching up the field and cooling off the tires he really had no choice but to come in can change.  For the story of the race I am going to say, keep an eye on Danica this week.  This is a very good track for her and she just might be able to back up that top five finish from last week.  The “Legend in His Own Mind” award I am going to say steer clear of Charlie Kimball.  He is in a “Ganassi” car that has no business being a back marker week in and week out.  I try not to pick on rookies too much here but it is well passed the time Kimball needs to show an effort that he is worthy of such a ride.  (*note* he really was not that impressive in lights either)

The Milwaukee 225 Preview and Predictions

This week IndyCar returns to the Milwaukee Mile.  I know this is called a fan favorite track but personal I just do not get it.  Of all of the ovals, Milwaukee is the most follow the leader track IndyCar goes to.  I did not miss it last year and do not understand why IndyCar brass bent over backwards to get it back for this year.  That said it is still an IndyCar race so I will still be glued to my TV to watch the race.  As this is an ABC race there is no coverage of qualifying this week so we hardcore fans will have to lesion to it on streaming audio while “normal” fans just check the web for the results or wait till pre-race to find out what the grid will look like.  (I still do not understand why you cannot have streaming video of practice and qualifying if there is NO telecast that it might “rob from”!)

Let us move on to my predictions.  I hate to say it but I am predicting a death star weekend.  For the pole, I am going to go with Scott Dixon assuming he has enough fuel to finish his run.  For the win, I am going to stick with Scott Dixon as I said in the preview this is a follow the leader track so unless something unforeseen happens the pole setter is likely to be the winner.  For P2 I will go with Ganassi to sweep the top two with Dario Franchitti.  To finish out the podium Ryan Briscoe he let me know last week at Texas lets see if he can make up for it here.  The story of the race is going to be Takuma Sato he really impressed me last week at Texas, he has always been a sleeper for me on the road courses but he has be quite the disappointment there, which makes his Texas showing on the oval stick out even more.  Finally, the “Legend in his own mind” award I will give to EJ Viso.  Yes, he also had a good showing at Texas but I am afraid that he might be someone you do not want to build up confidence in as he will try to do something above his talent level and the car will have to go in the trailer on jacks.

Firestone Twin 275s at Texas Preview and Predictions

Well it is finally here.  Ever sense it was announced in the off-season I have been wondering how this format will work.  I was not a fan of the format at first and I still do not like it.  Double headers are great for support series but this is IndyCar if you want to be treated like the premier racing series that you are then do not set your races up like a supporting class race.  However, if that is not bad enough any creditability to the second race is completely lost due to the fact that the grid is set by blind draw!  This is not even support series style this is go-kart style, but even there only the heats are blind draw the main is set by average finish of the heats.  I would say if you are going to have a double-header type format the second race grid should be set by fastest lap times during the first race.  This would be better then the “old way” of finishing order in that if a fast car has trouble then he will still be in the back while the other fast cars are out front and gone.  With this blind draw format there is potential for things to go wrong.  Lets play the “what if game” for a bit.  What if the front of the field is heavy with slow cars, you get a big pile up early in the race making for a very boring race.  What if there is 1 fast guy on the front row while all of the other people that proved to be fast in race 1 are stuck behind slower traffic, he will check out and be long gone making for a very boring race.  What if your favorite driver gets a bad draw and is the back of the field all of race 2?  This format might “move the needle” but not in the way, Randy Bernard wants, because people (not the hardcore, blog reading, fans) will shut off the second race.  I guess we will see how it turns out.  I hope I am wrong about the second and it is not a complete snoozer but we shall see.

As for predictions for the pole I am going to go with Briscoe, he needs to make up walling the car on pole day and having to move to the T car if not for that he would have been in the running for pole at Indy, so keep it off the wall in practice and go for it.  As for the podium, I am going for the top three average finishes (most points scored) as when we look back at the race that is what is going to matter.  For first I am going to stick with Briscoe, I think he is due for a good run he had one going at Indy before “the Townsend Dollar Bill” bounced off the wall and took him out plus Texas has been good to Ryan in the past.  He may not come out with 50 points but unless something happens, he should have a good showing.  For P2 I will go with Dixon, someone else who has a very good record at Texas and I expect him to split the wins with Briscoe so it is going to come down to who has the better other finish.  For P3 let us go with Helio.  As much as I would love to go with a non-Death Star team I just think that the logistics of the format plays into the hands of the well organized teams and even though Penske has not really looked well organized so far this season heads will roll if that is not turned around soon.  For the story of the race, I am going to go with Marco Andretti he could be very fun to watch if he gets, is car hooked up on the high line as he has in the past.  Finally, the “Legend In His Own Mind” award is a “Legend In Her Own Mind” this week as I am expecting Danica to prove that last year when she had a good race at Texas was in fact just a flook.  She is on her way to NASCAR and IndyCar is not going to miss her we just need to get companies to promote other driver.  Plus I am not sure how much Danica is helping IndyCar anymore already as she is always introduced as “NASCAR driver Danica Patrick” whenever she is on TV.

Itaipava Sao Paulo Indy 300 presented by Nestle Preview and Predictions

It is time for the IZOD IndyCar’s annual trip below the equator.  And no Jack Arute I am not talking about Japan!!!  We are going to the home of half the field Brazil.  Okay it is not quite half and when I said “we” I really mean them, as I could not even go to Barber, even though I won free tickets and paddock passes, because of the price of fuel, which seems cheep now only three weeks ago.  So like, I would expect everyone reading this, I will be stuck at home watching this one on Verses.

The track layout for Sao Paulo is absolutely brilliant!  Anyone who knows me or well get to know my through this blog, knows that I am a oval guy but as far as road courses go this lay out might just be the best I’ve ever seen and that includes all of the F1 tracks around the world.  Too bad the track surface cannot live up to the layouts potential.  I am not too concerned about the start/finish straight from last year.  I am sure they learn their lesion and are prepared this year so: 1) the cars can get grip on the concrete and 2) it is not a dust bowl and the drivers can actually see where they are going.  No my complaint has to do with street courses in general.  There are ways to make a “street” course work and that is to do it like F1 does it.  Require the streets to be FIA approved racing surface.  If you want to run in the streets that is find but make sure the streets are acceptable.  St. Petersburg is a good example of this.  They paved their streets to make a usable racetrack.  In contrast, look at Long Beach last week.  That track is just like the roads I travel on every day along with the bumps and man whole covers that my streetcar.  What is the problem you ask?  Well if my streetcar, with a ground clearance of about eight inch and travels at a typical speed of 62 mph, his a man whole cover I probably would not even notice it.  If a racecar however, hits a man whole cover he is sent into the tire wall.  Just ask Josef Newgarden who while leading the Firestone Indy Lights race at Long Beach hit a man whole cover and out of the race.  Can we all agree that there is no room for a man whole cover on a true world class racing circuit!  Sao Paulo may or may not have man whole covers on or near the racing line, I do not remember from last year but I do remember that is was way, Way, WAY too bumpy to be considered as a world class racing circuit.  Last year was a great race but how much better could it have been on a smooth surface?

 

Let us move to predictions.  It is a road / street course to my prediction for pole is the same as ALL road / street courses and that is Will Power.  I am not saying Power is going to take every pole on the twisties this year, as I am sure he’ll faultier somewhere, and end up as far back as P2 but I’ll never pick against him for pole when it comes to the road and street courses.  To take the “twin checkers”, I want to pick a Brazilian and I WANT to pick TK but I am not going to.  TK just does not have the killer attitude this year.  Blame it on the new team where he does not know all of the guys yet.  Blame it on EJ Viso for tearing up so much equipment that Tony feels he just has to bring the car home what ever it is he is just not the same TK we all know and love.  Prove me wrong TK prove me wrong I would love it!!!  Therefore, if I still want to go with a Brazilian then I will look towards Helio.  Lord knows he needs a good, clean race and a win would sure go a long ways to getting his confidence back before Indy.  So sure, why not I will go out on the limb and pick Helio for the win.  Besides if, he is already in front then he will have no one to run into from behind!  To come in P2 I am going to go with Power.  He cannot be too far down the order and with Power behind him; there will not be any “getch’a back” moves to take Helio out.  I would hope no IndyCar driver would do this these guys (and girls) are better then NASCAR driver that way too not just in their talent levels.  But you never know with some of the mid-field and back.  For P3 I am looking at the “Major of Hitchtown” to come home with the podium locking out all of the Ganassi cars shutting out the Penske podium sweep.  Hitch was my pre-season pick for Rookie of the year even though I knew he would miss St. Pete and I am not backing off of him now.  He was faster then Oriol at the preseason test at Barber all the way till the low fuel new tires qualifying sims at the very end.  However, in his two races so far he has been out preformed by “Milk’s Favorite Cookie” (My own personal nick name for Oriol Servia is “Oreo”)  This week Hitch turns it around and starts to out perform his teammate race in and race out.  For the “Story of the Race” I am going to say keep an eye out on Vitor.  He may not be able to back up his podium finish from last year but with a top ten maybe even a top five he can show us all that last year was not a fluke and he still has what it takes to be an elite IndyCar driver.  Last but not least the “Legend In His Own Mind” award I am going to pick EJ Viso to put it in the wall again!  Not much of a stretch I know but hey if I am picking Helio to have a good race.  Who else can I count on to do something stupid?