Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama Preview and Predictions

And we are back at it with the second race of the season in as many weeks.  This week is Barber which is on iRacing so that makes it a little easier for me to break down as I have driven and raced on it.

There really is only one good passing opportunity per lap and that is going down breaking for turn 5.  I expect this week to be a better test of how the “new” (which is back to the old) blocking rule is going to work.  I don’t see Castroneves completing a pass on the outside here so defending the inside line will probably be enough to hold anyone off but will see.  I expect we will also see the driver’s test Barfield this week as not only is passing going to be hard but they have two weeks to get replacement parts and which will not affect the April 4^th test at Indy as that will be with the new oval aero parts.  So if the reason everyone was so well behaved at St. Pete was because lack of parts and not time between races that is not going to be an issue here.

For predictions I’m going to change it up some sure I think Power will get the pole but it will get pretty boring if I just pick Power every time so I’ll go with Briscoe this week.  Some things we learn from last week is on the twisties Chevy is the lump to have.  What makes this interesting is this might mean on ovals Honda is the better choice so that could make May fun to see how well the Penskie’s can get will people we don’t normally see up there (like A.J. Foyt Enterprises) up there!  Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves though back to this week and Barber.  Major Hitchcliffe did set the fastest time in Q2 last week so AA has what it takes to get it done so don’t turn you back on them either which is why I am going to go with James Hinchcliffe for the win this week.  Going out on a little limb but not too big of one.  For P2 I would look towards Will Power to rebound from his “horrible” 7^th place finish last week.  (Just how great do you have to be when 7^th is a horrible finish?)  For the third step on the podium I am going to go with Ryan Briscoe to complete the Chevy sweep.  The story of the race I am afraid is going to be the blocking/defending rule as I really see some people getting held up behind slower cars.  (As long as it isn’t how bad the TV coverage is however, I’ll consider it a win!)  The Legend In His Own Mind Award I’m going to look at Rubens Barrichello.  I was not one of the people who thought Rubens would come in and just take over the IndyCar series.  While I said it wouldn’t shock me if he won A race it wouldn’t shock me if he didn’t either and I would be surprised if he was a serious contender for the championship.  However, after a 17^th place finish last week I think he really needs a top 10 this week to show that he is not too old to get it done and is more than just hype.

Iowa Corn Indy 250 Preview and Predictions

This weekend IndyCar heads to the short oval of Iowa Speedway and for the first time it will be ran under the lights.  Better still (at lease for me) is I am heading there with them.  This is my replacement for Chicagoland Speedway and Barber.  (I always go to Chicagoland but sense IndyCar does not race there this year I will give my money to Rusty Wallace instead.  I also had tickets and pit passes for all three days at Barber earlier this year but was unable to go so I talked myself in to going to Iowa to make up for it).  This is a very nifty little track with changing banking (done right, more and more tracks are going to different banking in the turns but Iowa did it right with a nice smooth parabolic curve).  The one thing learned from years passed at this track is aggressiveness does NOT always pay off.  Please take not Mr. EJ Viso!  This is also a track where the Death Stars dominance should be at its lease.  As aerodynamics means next to nothing here, they are very important on road courses and extremely important on most ovals this however is that exception.  Here you need mechanical grip not aero grip.  So if “Pork Chop” was going to have a good race this is her best shot.

For predictions, contrary to what I just said about “Pork Chop” I am not going to go with Simona.  Sentimental favorite yes but I just do not think she can pull it off with her confidence shaken as badly as it is.  Pole is going to be hard to pick, as I am afraid that it might come down to track temperatures.  Qualifying is right smack in the middle of the afternoon high so catch a cloud and your golden otherwise be prepared to slip and slide.  Should be interesting how teams attack qualifying as the track conditions will be nothing like race but they do have a hour fifteen minute practice that will also have hot slippery track conditions so we will see.  Meanwhile I have to pick someone so I will go with the hot hand of Dario Franchitti.  For the win, I would love to see Tony Kanaan pull it off and his showing at the Mile gives me enough hope to go with it!  One note though Tony you have to finish to win and this has not been the best track for Tony when it comes to rolling the car home.  Second, I will go with Dario after all if anyone other then his BFF (TK) beats him we know we will have two whole weeks of him crying about it but then again he is likely to cry about something anyway.  To close out the podium I well say Helio brings it home.  Unless you are extreme anti-Helio, you just had to fill heart broken for him last week.  Leading pulling away flat tire no matter still fastest car on the track yellow had to come in.  I strongly believe without TK spinning Helio would have stayed out and brought it home but with the yellow bunching up the field and cooling off the tires he really had no choice but to come in can change.  For the story of the race I am going to say, keep an eye on Danica this week.  This is a very good track for her and she just might be able to back up that top five finish from last week.  The “Legend in His Own Mind” award I am going to say steer clear of Charlie Kimball.  He is in a “Ganassi” car that has no business being a back marker week in and week out.  I try not to pick on rookies too much here but it is well passed the time Kimball needs to show an effort that he is worthy of such a ride.  (*note* he really was not that impressive in lights either)

The Milwaukee 225 Preview and Predictions

This week IndyCar returns to the Milwaukee Mile.  I know this is called a fan favorite track but personal I just do not get it.  Of all of the ovals, Milwaukee is the most follow the leader track IndyCar goes to.  I did not miss it last year and do not understand why IndyCar brass bent over backwards to get it back for this year.  That said it is still an IndyCar race so I will still be glued to my TV to watch the race.  As this is an ABC race there is no coverage of qualifying this week so we hardcore fans will have to lesion to it on streaming audio while “normal” fans just check the web for the results or wait till pre-race to find out what the grid will look like.  (I still do not understand why you cannot have streaming video of practice and qualifying if there is NO telecast that it might “rob from”!)

Let us move on to my predictions.  I hate to say it but I am predicting a death star weekend.  For the pole, I am going to go with Scott Dixon assuming he has enough fuel to finish his run.  For the win, I am going to stick with Scott Dixon as I said in the preview this is a follow the leader track so unless something unforeseen happens the pole setter is likely to be the winner.  For P2 I will go with Ganassi to sweep the top two with Dario Franchitti.  To finish out the podium Ryan Briscoe he let me know last week at Texas lets see if he can make up for it here.  The story of the race is going to be Takuma Sato he really impressed me last week at Texas, he has always been a sleeper for me on the road courses but he has be quite the disappointment there, which makes his Texas showing on the oval stick out even more.  Finally, the “Legend in his own mind” award I will give to EJ Viso.  Yes, he also had a good showing at Texas but I am afraid that he might be someone you do not want to build up confidence in as he will try to do something above his talent level and the car will have to go in the trailer on jacks.

Post Fast Friday Indianapolis 500 Grid Prediction

Here is my Post Fast Friday Indianapolis 500 Grid Prediction.  I will start with the heart brake of who doesn’t make it.  The easy ones are the #57 (which will never make an attempt even if it does some practice laps on Sunday.)  The #20 (was going to be hard to make it anyway but now with this extra drama that is going to be even harder.)  The #18 (Jakes just does not seem to have the speed so I am saying go ahead and write him off.)  Finally I hate to say it but I am calling the #78 an easy call to not make it (unable to make even an install lap today with the back up car I think they just have too much work and too little time to put a fast enough qual run in *very sad face*).  The others DNQ’s are much harder to pin down but here is what I came up with:

Position	Car #	Driver	Team
DNQ	57		Sarah Fisher
DNQ	20	Scott Speed - R	Dragon
DNQ	18	James Jakes - R	Dale Coyne
DNQ	78	Simona de Silvestro	HVM
DNQ	8	Ho-Pin Tung - R	Dragon
DNQ	43	John Andretti	Andretti / Petty
DNQ	88	Jay Howard - R	Rahal-Letterman/Sam Schmidt
DNQ	41	Bruno Junqueira	Foyt
33	34	Sebastian Saavedra - R	Conquest
32	27	Mike Conway	Andretti Autosport
31	11	Davey Hamilton	Dreyer & Reinbold/Kingdom
30	36	Pippa Mann - R	Conquest
29	28	Ryan Hunter-Reay	Andretti Autosport
28	17	Raphael Matos	AFS
27	59	E.J. Viso	KV Racing Technology
26	19	Alex Lloyd	Dale Coyne
25	24	Ana Beatriz - R	Dreyer & Reinbold
24	23	Paul Tracy	Dreyer & Reinbold
23	83	Charlie Kimball - R	Chip Ganassi
22	07	Tomas Scheckter	KVRT/SH Redline
21	5	Takuma Sato	KV Racing Technology
20	82	Tony Kanaan	KV Racing Technology
19	98	Dan Wheldon - W	Bryan Herta Autosport
18	22	Justin Wilson	Dreyer & Reinbold
17	44	Buddy Rice - W	Panther
16	38	Graham Rahal	Chip Ganassi
15	06	James Hinchcliffe - R	Newman-Haas
14	7	Danica Patrick	Andretti Autosport
13	26	Marco Andretti	Andretti Autosport
12	14	Vitor Meria	Foyt
11	30	Bertrand Baguette	Rahal-Letterman
10	99	Townsend Bell	Sam Schmidt
9	4	J.R. Hildebrand - R	Panther
8	67	Ed Carpenter	Sarah Fisher
7	77	Alex Tagliani	Sam Schmidt
6	10	Dario Franchitti - W	Target Chip Ganassi
5	6	Ryan Briscoe	Team Penske
4	2	Oriol Servia	Newman-Haas
3	12	Will Power	Team Penske
2	9	Scott Dixon - W	Target Chip Ganassi
1	3	Helio Castroneves - W	Team Penske

If you remember last year Helio put up a time in his first Fast 9 qualifying attempt that nobody could touch even in practice with a tow!  So I see no reason not to go with him again for P1.  Predicting speed however is going to be harder as it is more of a weather forecast then anything else.  My weather forecast this morning (I have not seen any newer data) was for higher winds (with incoming storms) around happy hour.  So While I think will see at lease a mid 227 before 4 o’clock after the times reset for the fast 9 pole speed will drop to a 227.059

Pre-Practice Indianapolis 500 Grid Prediction

Here it is I have made my Pre-Practice grid prediction for the “2011 Indianapolis 500 Mile Race”.  This what quite challenging as there hasn’t been a single car on any oval nor less IMS but that kind of makes it fun too.  I will make a 2^nd grid prediction after Fast Friday which I am sure would be much more accurate and will include a pole speed.  You are welcome to join me in making your prediction but there will be two pools to get in the pre-practice pool you have to summit your grid before opening day.

P	Car #	Driver	Hometown	Car Name	Entrant
Row 1
1	3	Helio Castroneves (W)	Sao Paulo	Shell V-Power/Pennzoil Ultra Team Penske	Team Penske
2	6	Ryan Briscoe	Sydney	IZOD Team Penske	Team Penske
3	9	Scott Dixon (W)	Auckland, New Zealand	Target Chip Ganassi Racing	Target Chip Ganassi Racing
Row 2
4	10	Dario Franchitti (W)	Edinburgh, Scotland	Target Chip Ganassi Racing	Target Chip Ganassi Racing
5	0.6	James Hinchcliffe (R)	Toronto	Sprott Newman/Haas Racing	Newman/Haas Racing
6	12	Will Power	Toowoomba, Australia	Verizon Team Penske	Team Penske
Row 3
7	82	Tony Kanaan	Salvador, Brazil	GEICO – KV Racing Technology – Lotus	KV Racing Technology - Lotus
8	26	Marco Andretti	Nazareth, Pa.	Team Venom	Andretti Autosport
9	67	Ed Carpenter	Indianapolis	Dollar General/Sarah Fisher Racing	Sarah Fisher Racing
Row 4
10	2	Oriol Servia	Pals, Spain	Telemundo Newman/Haas Racing	Newman/Haas Racing
11	28	Ryan Hunter-Reay	Boca Raton, Fla.	Team DHL/Sun Drop Citrus Soda	Andretti Autosport
12	4	JR Hildebrand (R)	Sausalito, Calif.	National Guard Panther Racing	Panther Racing
Row 5
13	7	Danica Patrick	Roscoe, Ill.	Team GoDaddy	Andretti Autosport
14	38	Graham Rahal	New Albany, Ohio	Service Central	Service Central Chip Ganassi Racing
15	27	Mike Conway	Bromley, England	Team GoDaddy.com	Andretti Autosport
Row 6
16	77	Alex Tagliani	Lachenaie, Quebec	Bowers & Wilkins/Sam Schmidt Motorsports	Sam Schmidt Motorsports
17	78	Simona De Silvestro	Thun, Switzerland	Nuclear Clean Air Energy HVM Racing	Nuclear Clean Air Energy HVM Racing
18	59	E.J. Viso	Caracas, Venezuela	PDVSA – KV Racing Technology- Lotus	KV Racing Technology – Lotus
Row 7
19	44	Buddy Rice (W)	Phoenix, Arizona	Panther Racing	Panther Racing
20	99	Townsend Bell	San Luis Obispo, Calif.	Herbalife Sam Schmidt Motorsports	Sam Schmidt Motorsports
21	0.7	Tomas Scheckter	Cape Town, South Africa	Team REDLINE Xtreme – Circle K	KV Racing Technology – SH Racing
Row 8
22	5	Takuma Sato	Tokyo	KV Racing Technology - Lotus	KV Racing Technology - Lotus
23	36	Pippa Mann (R)	England	Conquest Racing	Conquest Racing
24	83	Charlie Kimball (R)	Camarillo, Calif.	Levemir and NovoLog FlexPen	Novo Nordisk Chip Ganassi Racing
Row 9
25	23	Paul Tracy	Scarborough, Ontario	WIX Filters/Dreyer & Reinbold Racing	Dreyer & Reinbold Racing
26	22	Justin Wilson	Sheffield, England	Z-Line Designs/Dreyer & Reinbold Racing	Dreyer & Reinbold Racing
27	24	Ana Beatriz	Sao Paulo	Team Ipiranga/Dreyer & Reinbold Racing	Dreyer & Reinbold Racing
Row 10
28	17	Raphael Matos	Belo Horizonte, Brazil	Automatic Fire Sprinklers, Inc.	AFS Racing
29	19	TBA	TBA	Boy Scouts of America	Dale Coyne Racing
30	14	Vitor Meira	Brasilia, Brazil	ABC Supply Co A.J. Foyt Racing	A.J. Foyt Enterprises
Row 11
31	11	Davey Hamilton	Nampa, Idaho	HP/Dreyer & Reinbold Racing	Dreyer & Reinbold Racing
32	98	Dan Wheldon (W)	Emberton, England	Bryan Herta Autosport	Bryan Herta Autosport
33	34	Sebastian Saavedra	Bogotá, Colombia	Conquest Racing	Conquest Racing
Did Not Qualify
	18	James Jakes (R)	Leeds, England	Acorn Stairlifts	Dale Coyne Racing
	43	John Andretti	Indianapolis	Team Window World	Richard Petty/ Andretti Autosport
	30	Bertrand Baguette	Verviers, Belgium	Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing	Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing
	8	Ho-Pin Tung	China	Dragon Racing	Dragon Racing
	TBA	Bruno Junqueira	Belo Horizonte, Brazil	A.J. Foyt Racing	A.J. Foyt Enterprises
	88	Jay Howard (R)	Basildon, England	Service Central Schmidt-RLL Racing	Sam Schmidt – RLL Racing
	16	TBA	TBA	TBA	TBA
	57	TBA	TBA	Sarah Fisher Racing	Sarah Fisher Racing
	89	TBA	TBA	China Racing	China Racing

Itaipava Sao Paulo Indy 300 presented by Nestle Preview and Predictions

It is time for the IZOD IndyCar’s annual trip below the equator.  And no Jack Arute I am not talking about Japan!!!  We are going to the home of half the field Brazil.  Okay it is not quite half and when I said “we” I really mean them, as I could not even go to Barber, even though I won free tickets and paddock passes, because of the price of fuel, which seems cheep now only three weeks ago.  So like, I would expect everyone reading this, I will be stuck at home watching this one on Verses.

The track layout for Sao Paulo is absolutely brilliant!  Anyone who knows me or well get to know my through this blog, knows that I am a oval guy but as far as road courses go this lay out might just be the best I’ve ever seen and that includes all of the F1 tracks around the world.  Too bad the track surface cannot live up to the layouts potential.  I am not too concerned about the start/finish straight from last year.  I am sure they learn their lesion and are prepared this year so: 1) the cars can get grip on the concrete and 2) it is not a dust bowl and the drivers can actually see where they are going.  No my complaint has to do with street courses in general.  There are ways to make a “street” course work and that is to do it like F1 does it.  Require the streets to be FIA approved racing surface.  If you want to run in the streets that is find but make sure the streets are acceptable.  St. Petersburg is a good example of this.  They paved their streets to make a usable racetrack.  In contrast, look at Long Beach last week.  That track is just like the roads I travel on every day along with the bumps and man whole covers that my streetcar.  What is the problem you ask?  Well if my streetcar, with a ground clearance of about eight inch and travels at a typical speed of 62 mph, his a man whole cover I probably would not even notice it.  If a racecar however, hits a man whole cover he is sent into the tire wall.  Just ask Josef Newgarden who while leading the Firestone Indy Lights race at Long Beach hit a man whole cover and out of the race.  Can we all agree that there is no room for a man whole cover on a true world class racing circuit!  Sao Paulo may or may not have man whole covers on or near the racing line, I do not remember from last year but I do remember that is was way, Way, WAY too bumpy to be considered as a world class racing circuit.  Last year was a great race but how much better could it have been on a smooth surface?

 

Let us move to predictions.  It is a road / street course to my prediction for pole is the same as ALL road / street courses and that is Will Power.  I am not saying Power is going to take every pole on the twisties this year, as I am sure he’ll faultier somewhere, and end up as far back as P2 but I’ll never pick against him for pole when it comes to the road and street courses.  To take the “twin checkers”, I want to pick a Brazilian and I WANT to pick TK but I am not going to.  TK just does not have the killer attitude this year.  Blame it on the new team where he does not know all of the guys yet.  Blame it on EJ Viso for tearing up so much equipment that Tony feels he just has to bring the car home what ever it is he is just not the same TK we all know and love.  Prove me wrong TK prove me wrong I would love it!!!  Therefore, if I still want to go with a Brazilian then I will look towards Helio.  Lord knows he needs a good, clean race and a win would sure go a long ways to getting his confidence back before Indy.  So sure, why not I will go out on the limb and pick Helio for the win.  Besides if, he is already in front then he will have no one to run into from behind!  To come in P2 I am going to go with Power.  He cannot be too far down the order and with Power behind him; there will not be any “getch’a back” moves to take Helio out.  I would hope no IndyCar driver would do this these guys (and girls) are better then NASCAR driver that way too not just in their talent levels.  But you never know with some of the mid-field and back.  For P3 I am looking at the “Major of Hitchtown” to come home with the podium locking out all of the Ganassi cars shutting out the Penske podium sweep.  Hitch was my pre-season pick for Rookie of the year even though I knew he would miss St. Pete and I am not backing off of him now.  He was faster then Oriol at the preseason test at Barber all the way till the low fuel new tires qualifying sims at the very end.  However, in his two races so far he has been out preformed by “Milk’s Favorite Cookie” (My own personal nick name for Oriol Servia is “Oreo”)  This week Hitch turns it around and starts to out perform his teammate race in and race out.  For the “Story of the Race” I am going to say keep an eye out on Vitor.  He may not be able to back up his podium finish from last year but with a top ten maybe even a top five he can show us all that last year was not a fluke and he still has what it takes to be an elite IndyCar driver.  Last but not least the “Legend In His Own Mind” award I am going to pick EJ Viso to put it in the wall again!  Not much of a stretch I know but hey if I am picking Helio to have a good race.  Who else can I count on to do something stupid?